Marylanders who have bought a home in recent years spend much more on their monthly mortgage than previous buyers, creating a stark economic divide that threatens to upend the state’s demographic landscape.

Young professionals are leaving Maryland for more affordable pastures, state data shows. And low-income households are exceptionally at risk as the cost of homeownership mounts.

Newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show how wide the gulf has become. In Maryland, people who bought homes in parts of 2023 and 2024 had a typical mortgage payment of $2,800 — $1,000 more than the statewide median for all homeowners. Those figures don’t include property tax, insurance and other costs often rolled into a homeowner’s monthly payment.

“If people are paying an increasing share of their incomes on housing costs, it may also mean they are building less of a savings buffer, which makes them more vulnerable to economic shocks,” said Carolina K. Reid, faculty research adviser at the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at the University of California, Berkeley, a national research and policy organization.

Buying a home later in life pushes payments on a traditional 30-year mortgage later. That makes retirement less feasible, Reid said. And spending more on housing costs means spending less on other priorities, such as education and health care.

If you bought your home in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, consider yourself lucky. The 2023-24 Maryland homebuyers are paying mortgages 47% higher than those who bought from 2015-19, the new data shows.

Real estate professionals say slow building, ineffective housing policies and an evolving set of regulations have made prices unattainable for more buyers. Mortgage interest rates, mostly on the rise the past few years, have contributed to escalating costs.

The dramatic rise means newer buyers are devoting a greater share of their income to housing costs than others. They spend roughly 40% of their typical monthly income on their housing, compared to around 30% for those who bought in the four years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Census Bureau’s median mortgage payment does not include taxes, insurance or homeowners association fees, which are more common in Maryland than almost any other state.

Anyone paying more than 30% of their gross income on rent or housing is considered cost burdened by federal government standards.

Marylanders pay more for their mortgages than people in all but eight other states, according to Census Bureau data.

That’s prompting residents to leave for places with lower housing costs, Maryland Comptroller Brooke Lierman said at an event in Howard County this month.

Should the trends continue unabated, it could diminish the state’s congressional representation over time, Lierman said — a threat California and New York also face as populations shift to the Sun Belt.

Before the pandemic, most migration out of Maryland happened among older, wealthier residents, Lierman said. Now younger adults account for half the population loss.

Losing young people is especially concerning, Lierman said, because they make up much of the workforce. That could starve Maryland of key sources of money, such as income, sales and property tax revenue — all things that funnel into government services: sewer and water infrastructure, roads, parks and schools.

Although Maryland is one of the most prosperous states in the country, the opportunity to relocate to the state for a job may not be as appealing as it used to be.

The states where former Marylanders are flocking — including North Carolina and Florida — not only have more affordable housing, Lierman said, but they are issuing more building permits, suggesting a link between real estate prices and supply.

Maryland is short at least 96,000 units of housing, according to state data, though some estimates peg the deficit at closer to 150,000 homes. In the wake of the 2008 Great Recession, housing construction in Maryland never rebounded to previous levels.

Nowhere is that felt more profoundly in Maryland than in Howard County, where the median monthly mortgage in 2024 surged to $3,600 before taxes, insurance and fees, the highest in the state.

It’s creating a market where only the highest earners can afford to buy, said Clark Bensen, a real estate agent with Sachs Realty, which has offices in Cockeysville and Columbia.

Prospective homeowners who can’t afford Howard have often gone to other parts of the state, Bensen said, including Carroll, Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties.

That’s becoming more of a possibility for Anna Nowaczyk, a speech pathologist who rents in Elkridge and works in Severna Park.

A new mom, Nowaczyk, 35, said her family is searching for slightly roomier quarters with enough space for a home office. She and her husband have steady jobs and advanced degrees, but they have not found a place that suits their budget.

“We grew up and became adults and were told, if you do these things and check these boxes, you can move forward and buy a home,” Nowaczyk said.

But it doesn’t feel that way. When she scrolls Zillow and other multiple listing services for leads, Nowaczyk often feels increased anxiety. She knows how many other families like hers are circling over the same posts.

Looking at the options she can afford has made Howard County seem slightly out of reach. It’s not clear when — or where in the region — they’ll be able to put down roots.

“It doesn’t seem worth it, or smart, to own a home now,” she said. “It’s frustrating, just time-wise, that just because we weren’t at that place or at that point, we missed our opportunity. And now we’re paying for it.”