Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s redistricting advisory commission is looking at new maps for congressional district boundaries. But do Marylanders support the effort?
Two polls offer insight into the mixed feelings Marylanders have about redrawing the maps as part of the national back-and-forth over redistricting inspired by President Donald Trump.
A new poll from a pro-redistricting coalition showed 54% of likely voters, including 68% of Democrats, support redrawing Maryland’s maps.
Considering redistricting is “normally a snoozer of an issue,” 54% support is high, said Donna Victoria of Victoria Research & Consulting. She polled more than 1,000 likely voters on behalf of Meet the Moment Maryland, a coalition of progressive groups that favors redistricting.
The poll found 31% of respondents offered strong support and 23% said they “somewhat” support redistricting.
Another 45% were opposed to redistricting, including 30% strongly opposed and 15% somewhat opposed. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
States have engaged in back-and-forth redistricting battles, kicked off when Texas redrew its maps to be more GOP-friendly at the behest of Trump.
Moore, a Democrat, set up an advisory commission led by U.S. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, a political ally. The commission met in private Thursday and agreed to look at proposals of new maps.
It remains unclear if Moore can push new maps through, because he faces staunch opposition from Senate President Bill Ferguson, whose chamber would need to approve along with the House of Delegates.
House Speaker Joseline Peña-Melnyk, who assumed her post this week, posted Friday that she’s “happy the work is continuing.”
Victoria said she was struck that Marylanders are paying significant attention to redistricting not only here but in other states. A total of 72% had heard at least a little bit about Maryland’s redistricting, while 86% had heard about efforts in both Texas and California.
“They’re not aware as much about the back-and-forth in Maryland, but they are paying attention,” Victoria said.
The poll also tested whether Democratic voters might punish their party’s lawmakers who don’t back Moore’s redistricting plans.
A total of 46% of likely primary voters said they were “somewhat” or “much” more likely to vote for a different Democrat if their incumbent didn’t support Moore’s plan.
That’s important in politically lopsided districts where the primary election is the main decider of who wins a seat in the General Assembly.
“The first electorate you have to face on the calendar, for now, is in June. That’s the first judgment on this, and what are those voters going to think?” Victoria said.
A recent poll from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Institute of Politics, meanwhile, did not find strong support for redistricting.
The UMBC Poll asked Marylanders to rank which issues should be low or high priorities for the state government to address, and just 27% said redrawing congressional lines should be a high priority.
Issues including health care, education, crime, taxes, housing and energy bills outpaced redistricting.
“People don’t think it’s a priority at a time when we’re facing a budget deficit and economic anxiety is high,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the UMBC Institute of Politics. “People are just not interested in this big fight.”
Rather than asking a yes-or-no question on supporting redistricting, the UMBC Poll asked a question that combined general thoughts about redistricting and whether it should be done in this case.
Forty percent said they disliked out-of-cycle redistricting and didn’t feel it’s necessary, but another 21% who disliked it felt it was necessary.
Another 24% said not only should Maryland redistrict but they liked it.
That puts support for redistricting in the UMBC Poll at about 45% — even though 81% of those polled also said drawing boundaries to favor one party is “a major problem” for democracy.
Kromer said supporters of redistricting will have to convince Marylanders to support it.
“You have to get people at least into the bucket of, ‘I don’t like it, but it’s necessary,’” Kromer said.
That’s difficult when there are competing priorities — including a budget to keep in balance — and not much time with election deadlines looming.
“There are only so many days in the legislative session,” she said.
The UMBC poll surveyed 801 Maryland residents, including 769 registered voters, by phone from Dec. 2-6. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
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