The field for the 150th Preakness Stakes is missing its headliner with Kentucky Derby champion Sovereignty taking a pass on the second jewel in the Triple Crown. At least Maryland’s signature race got the next best thing when Derby runner-up Journalism’s connections decided late Sunday to make the trip. The bay colt is the favorite in a nine-horse field that will bring many of thoroughbred racing’s most famous trainers to Pimlico Race Course on Saturday.
Meet this year’s contenders:
Journalism

Trainer: Michael McCarthy (won 2021 Preakness with Rombauer)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
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Post position: No. 2
Morning line odds: 8-5
Last race: Second to Sovereignty in Grade 1 Kentucky Derby on May 3
Career record: 6 starts, four firsts, one second, one third
Quote: “We think that this is a classic-caliber colt. Even though we’re going back 18 years, which isn’t exactly ancient history, his sire [Curlin] was arguably a less-inspiring third in the Kentucky Derby and came back two weeks later and beat Street Sense in the Preakness. Then he ran incredibly well in the Belmont, came back to run the table, and ultimately won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and was named Horse of the Year. Obviously, those are extremely large shoes to fill. But, Journalism is by Curlin, and history has a funny way of repeating itself.”
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— Aron Wellman, president and CEO of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, which co-owns Journalism.
Why he can win: Journalism went off as a worthy 7-2 favorite in the Derby and showed his quality despite a rough trip over the Kentucky mud. Why did he lose? McCarthy believes it was because Journalism was pinched by heavy traffic coming out of the gate and expended too much energy getting in position to stalk the pace. Rispoli moved him to the lead as planned, but he didn’t have enough in the tank to hold off a very good horse in Sovereignty. McCarthy has reason to believe he’ll get a cleaner start given the smaller field in Baltimore, and with plenty of speed in the race, Journalism should be set up well to make his move. He has performed more consistently and peaked higher than any horse he’ll face at Pimlico.
Why he can’t: Journalism will come back just two weeks after the hardest race of his life. McCarthy has no reason to think the well-tested colt will struggle with the turnaround, but we’ve seen strong favorites succumb to fresher contenders in past Preaknesses.
Sandman

Trainer: Mark Casse (2019 Preakness winner with War of Will)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2023 Preakness winner)
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Post position: No. 7
Morning line odds: 4-1
Last race: Seventh in Grade 1 Kentucky Derby
Career record: 9 races, 3 firsts, 1 second, 2 thirds
Quote: “We wanted to see how he came back. He’s an extremely happy horse right now. It looks like the race might set up nice for him. It looks like there’s a fair amount of speed. I always quote [trainer] Allen Jerkens, ‘Run ‘em when they’re good,’ and he’s good right now. We were planning on waiting for the Belmont, but a lot of things can happen in between. He’s telling us he’s happy so we’re going to go with it.”
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— Casse
Why he can win: Sandman was a popular betting choice in Kentucky but bumped a rival shortly after he exited the gate and could never make a serious move over a muddy track he did not handle well to Casse’s eye. But the gray colt is a strong closer and posted a solid Beyer figure (a metric that captures the relative speed of each race) in winning the March 29 Arkansas Derby. A hot early pace, possible given the speed in the Preakness field, would set him up for a late charge.
Why he can’t: With showers in the forecast for Saturday, it’s possible Sandman could be staring at more slop. If he didn’t thrive over it at Churchill, why would he at Pimlico? His race depends heavily on what others do out of the gate. A modest early pace might leave him in poor position to catch the more versatile and accomplished Journalism.
River Thames

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
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Post position: No. 6
Morning line odds: 9-2
Last race: Third in Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 8
Career record: 4 races, 2 firsts, 1 second
Quote: “He’s held his best form. He’s run well every time. We’re hoping maybe by bringing in a fresh horse, it will give us a little bit of an advantage.”
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— Pletcher
Why he can win: River Thames’ connections bypassed the Kentucky Derby in hopes of capturing the Preakness with an energized horse. It’s an unusual approach for Pletcher, but one his New York rival Chad Brown has used to great effect. River Thames is not one of the gifted unknowns in this field. He took on top competition in Kentucky and Florida, and his narrow loss in the March 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes looks pretty good given that Sovereignty was the horse who beat him.
Why he can’t: River Thames wasn’t quite good enough in his two Derby preps. Though he’s consistent, his top speed figure doesn’t rank with the best in this field. He’ll need that freshness advantage to be real if he’s to take the next step.
Clever Again

Trainer: Steve Asmussen (two-time Preakness winner)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz (2022 Preakness winner)
Post position: No. 8
Morning line odds: 5-1
Last race: Won Hot Springs Stakes on March 30
Career record: 3 races, 2 firsts, 1 second
Quote: “I mean, he’s fast and that does come into play. He has already in his short career already beaten a Grade 1 winner and he just needs to beat several of them. … He’s got a great temperament. Don’t expect him to lose anything there. Jose Ortiz, who is riding, has great confidence in the horse; thought that he handled very well in his work the other day and that he’s going to be versatile to do what he feels necessary to run his best.”
— Asmussen
Why he can win: Asmussen will join Bob Baffert in taking a shot with a lightly raced contender who flashed brilliance in his last start. Like Goal Oriented, Clever Again will be expected to run on or near the lead, and like Goal Oriented, he’ll have to show he can hold off the best competition he’s ever faced. He went wire-to-wire in his last start, and his Beyer speed figure from that day says this son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah belongs in this race.
Why he can’t: Asmussen has said that based on recent workouts, Clever Again appears comfortable sitting off the pace, so perhaps he won’t have to control Saturday’s race from the front. If he is the pace setter, however, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll eventually fall prey to Journalism and Sandman.
Goal Oriented

Trainer: Bob Baffert (record eight-time Preakness winner)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (2021 Preakness winner)
Post position: No. 1
Morning-line odds: 6-1
Last race: Won an allowance race on the Kentucky Derby undercard
Career record: 2 races, 2 firsts
Quote: “It’s asking a lot. But I’ve always been really high on this horse. He’s a big strong horse. He’s handled everything thrown at him. He’s shipped, he won. [2018 Triple Crown winner] Justify won the Santa Anita Derby third out. I’m not comparing him to Justify, but he’s a big strong horse like Justify. I think he can handle it.”
— Baffert
Why he can win: Baffert has won the Preakness every which way. He had to scratch his top contender, Rodriguez, because of a foot bruise, but he said he would not take Goal Oriented to Pimlico if he didn’t think the inexperienced colt could win. Goal Oriented showed sufficient brilliance in winning on the Derby undercard with what Baffert called “so much to spare.” He’ll be guided by Prat, the top rider in North America last year.
Why he can’t: Goal Oriented didn’t debut until April 6 and hasn’t faced anything close to this level of competition. He’s expected to be on or near the lead early, though starting from the rail won’t help. Does he have the stuff to hold off Journalism and Sandman? Baffert will try to snatch another Preakness by throwing a talented horse against a relatively thin field, but he really is playing a wild card in this case.
Heart of Honor

Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Post position: No. 4
Morning line odds: 12-1
Last race: Second in the April 5 UAE Derby in Dubai
Career record: 6 races, 2 firsts, 4 seconds
Quote: “I think this horse, in what he’s achieved so far, has to step up, but I think there’s a chance that he can step up. He’s a horse that seems to be maturing and coming around this time of year.”
— Jamie Osborne
Why he can win: It’s notoriously difficult to translate success in Dubai to the U.S. Triple Crown, but Osborne is a veteran British trainer who shipped Toast of New York to finish runner-up in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic. He sees energy and upside in Heart of Honor coming off a trio of solid stakes outings earlier this year. As Osborne said, a horse is “only 3 once.” The trainer and his jockey/daughter, Saffie, will bring a rare family partnership to the Preakness.
Why he can’t: Heart of Honor would need to take a significant step forward to outrun horses such as Journalism and Sandman. A close loss in the UAE Derby isn’t typically a result that would herald a future Preakness winner.
American Promise

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (seven-time Preakness winner)
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Post position: No. 3
Morning line odds: 15-1
Last race: Sixteenth in Grade 1 Kentucky Derby
Career record: 10 races, 2 firsts, 1 second, 1 third
Quote: “He’s got good tactical speed and I think he’s going to like the Pimlico track. I think he’s going to like the shorter race then the Derby.”
— Lukas
Why he can win: Count Lukas out at your peril. The 89-year-old trainer won his seventh Preakness last year with underestimated Seize the Grey. He’ll take another shot with a big, fast son of Justify who easily won the March 15 Virginia Derby before running into too much traffic in the Kentucky Derby. Lukas said that race “went to hell in a handbasket right out of the gate.” If American Promise breaks cleanly in the Preakness, perhaps he can control the race with his tactical speed. It would be a hometown triumph for Juarez, who grew up in Westminster and is making his Preakness debut.
Why he can’t: American Promise’s dominant win in Virginia wasn’t representative of the rest of his career. Was it a fluke or a mark of rapid improvement? Given his troubled Kentucky Derby trip, we just don’t know.
Gosger

Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Luis Saez
Post position: No. 9
Morning line odds: 20-1
Last race: Won Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on April 12
Career record: 3 races, 2 firsts, 1 second
Quote: “I thought he took a big step up in the Lexington off a maiden win, and he looks like he’s come forward again. Which he’ll need to. But, yeah, I think we need to take a go. [Journalism and Sandman] are two very nice horses. Both were very prominent in the betting for the Derby. But it’s the Preakness. Every year you’re always going to get three or four or five nice horses in there. But I think he fits and should have a good chance.”
— Walsh
Why he can win: Gosger is on the ascent, undefeated this year and filling out physically. He hasn’t faced elite competition, but we’ve seen horses on similar trajectories pull Preakness upsets.
Why he can’t: His top performance in the Lexington simply cannot compare to the best of Journalism and Sandman, nor for that matter to the best of American Promise, Clever Again and Goal Oriented. If he belongs in this class, he’ll have to show it.
Pay Billy

Trainer: Michael Gorham
Jockey: Raul Mena
Post position: No. 5
Morning line odds: 20-1
Last race: Won Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park on April 19
Career record: 8 races, 4 firsts, 1 second, 1 third
Quote: “He turned a corner when he turned 3. He wasn’t that focused as a baby, and it took a couple races for him to even figure out what he was doing. We always thought he had a lot of talent and wanted to go further, and that’s the way it turned out.”
— Gorham
Why he can win: Because you never know in this sport.
Why he can’t: Winning the Tesio guarantees entry to the Preakness but rarely promises success against the world-class thoroughbreds that come to Baltimore for the big race. Pay Billy has cleaned up at Laurel. This is a different level.
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