As Adley Rutschman goes, so go the Orioles. Or is it as the Orioles go, so goes Adley Rutschman?

For the first three seasons of the rebuild cornerstone’s career it was never really a question. The Orioles morphed into a winning team when Rutschman arrived on May 21, 2022. Rutschman’s fourth season has not been anything like the first three, for him nor the Orioles.

It remains true that Rutschman is a talismanic figure of this period of Orioles baseball. What we now are left to wonder is whether that magic is derived from the winning he brought about, or vice versa. And more to the point, does it still exist at all?

The background needs no repeating but nonetheless: Selected as the first overall pick in 2019, Rutschman became the face of the Orioles’ long-term rebuilding project and ultimately the game’s top prospect before he debuted in 2022. That Orioles team was 16-24 when Rutschman was called up, and finished the year 83-79.

Then the Orioles won the division in 2023, the first of two playoff appearances. Rutschman was an All-Star in 2023 and 2024, and at the two-year mark of his career, the Orioles had won a shade under 60% of their games since his debut. This year has been different, to say the least. (As an aside, it was truly astonishing to reread last year’s anniversary column for Rutschman. That was just a year ago?)

Since last May 21, he is last among 11 qualified Orioles hitters with a wRC+ of 88 and a .647 OPS in 149 games (613 plate appearances). He has walked 10.8% of the time and struck out 15.5% of the time. Of the 197 hitters who entered Tuesday with at least 400 plate appearances since last May 21, Rutschman ranks 154th by wRC+ and 172nd in OPS.

It’s hard to truly evaluate this because we’re talking about two seasons that feel very different. Former manager Brandon Hyde said as much himself last week, noting that the at-bats are much better this year. As Rutschman struggled in the second half of 2024, he stopped hitting the ball hard in the summer.

In June of 2024, Rutschman had a 145 wRC+ and an .848 OPS for an Orioles team that went 17-12. The performances, both for Rutschman and the Orioles, deteriorated from there. By the end of the season, Rutschman carried a 104 wRC+ and a .709 OPS. There’s been no evidence that Rutschman was injured at all in 2024, and the closest we’ve had to an explanation as to why he fell off was that his swing got long.

That’s been fixed and he’s hitting the ball hard again, but he’s been one of the game’s unluckiest hitters in 2025. Rutschman entered Tuesday batting .208 against an expected batting average of .272, and with a slugging percentage of .338 against an expected one of .472. The gulf between his weighted on-base average of .288 and expected one of .360 is 10th-largest in the league.

Fair or unfair, the team’s fortunes have declined in step with Rutschman’s — and when the team’s success coincided largely with his arrival.

Rutschman was well-above average at a minimum through all of the good times this team enjoyed. Break it down by months and there was one full month in Rutschman’s first two seasons (September/October of 2022) in which the team had a losing record, and in that Rutschman more than did his part with a wRC+ of 148 and OPS of .851.

Likewise, he was below-average just one month — June 2023, and the Orioles were merely 13-11.That’s not much consolation at this point, and also complicates any explanation of what happened over the last year. Part of my own theory is that Rutschman feeds off the success of those around him, and as injuries have kept the Orioles from succeeding, he’s struggled to generate it on his own.

Workload could have something to do with it. Rutschman being a switch-hitter means many of the days he’s not behind the plate are spent as the team’s designated hitter against lefties, and true days off are rare for him. That’s by design when you’re meant to carry such an offensive threat, but particularly as the team’s right-handed hitting options have been diminished by injury, Rutschman hasn’t had the opportunity to sit out and rest often despite playing the game’s most taxing position.

There are probably countless reasons for Rutschman not hitting at his previous level. What’s undeniable is that when the Orioles were at their best, so was he — and now the underperformance follows that same track.

Like the team itself, none of this means Rutschman won’t be that good again in the future. But similarly, sitting here in late May, we aren’t exactly in a position to feel good about those possibilities, given how long both player and team have been lacking.