It began as a simple exercise I’d been meaning to knock out all winter long.

Once the public projection systems’ forecasts were out, I wanted to see if the returning Orioles players, many of whom underperformed last year, were forecast to add more upside to 2026 than the team’s highly touted offseason additions were.

The answer was about what I expected. The current Orioles returning to form has the potential to add more value to the club than do all of the front office’s offseason moves.

Two surprises emerged, though. One is how narrow the gap is, and by extension, how further acquisitions, particularly in the rotation, can swing that analysis. The other is how large some of the projected recoveries are for Baltimore’s homegrown hitters.

Taken together, the team is set up to be better than it was in 2025. Even some improvements, from returning players and through additions, will make that so. For the Orioles to be a lot better, though, a lot has to go right.

Almost all of the projected internal improvement comes on the hitting side; the returning pitchers are basically forecast to provide the same value, based on FanGraphs’ wins above replacement (fWAR) forecasts from the depth chart-informed ZiPS projection system.

Adley Rutschman (1.2 fWAR last year) has the largest projected leap, as he’s forecast at 4.3 fWAR. The next largest increases come from Jordan Westburg (1.9 fWAR to 4.3) and Colton Cowser (0.6 fWAR to 2.6), with Samuel Basallo and Tyler O’Neill each projected to jump 1.7 fWAR and one-win increases for team leader Gunnar Henderson (4.8 to 5.8) and Jackson Holliday (1.2 to 2.2). Even Dylan Beavers’ 0.9 fWAR bump feels significant.

The 12 returning hitters (the aforementioned plus Jeremiah Jackson, Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle and Heston Kjerstad) are forecast to produce 15.3 fWAR more than a year ago. At first blush, that’s incredibly encouraging. It’s also such a simple assumption to make — that all these players who were hurt last year will be back to themselves and possibly better than ever, all at once — that it almost feels foolish to make it.

These are big numbers. It’s not a stretch of the imagination for the likes of Henderson, Rutschman, Cowser and Westburg to meet those projections. Outside of Westburg, those projections are all below the players’ career-best years. All you’re really saying if you think they can hit those projections is that they’re still in their ascendancy as players and that you believe injury is solely responsible for last year.

Banking on those returns to form would be reckless if not for the moves made to hedge against that bet. In the lineup, the offseason began with the modest addition of Leody Taveras, who offers versatile outfield depth and is forecast for 0.4 fWAR. Then came the bigger additions — trade acquisition Taylor Ward (projected 3 fWAR) and free agent signing Pete Alonso (projected 4.2 fWAR).

On the pitching side, where an expected positive regression from the returning Kyle Bradish (1.1 fWAR to 3.1) is negated by the other kind of projected regression for Trevor Rogers (3.3 fWAR to 2.5) and Dean Kremer (2.6 fWAR to 1.8), the majority of the improvement comes from the outside.

Free agent signees Zach Eflin (1.8 projected fWAR) and Andrew Kittredge (0.6 projected fWAR) were in the organization last year but count as offseason additions, and there’s no question about Shane Baz, who is forecast at 1.6 fWAR. (For what it’s worth, Grayson Rodriguez — who didn’t throw a pitch last year and was dealt to acquire Ward — is forecast for 1.9 fWAR.) Add in closer Ryan Helsley (1.3 fWAR), and those seven additions to the 40-man roster via trade and free agency are projected to bring the Orioles 12.9 fWAR.

Make no mistake about it — this team would be on a lot shakier ground without those additions. President of baseball operations Mike Elias should be commended for making them.

While this exercise affirmed my thesis that positive regression for the Orioles’ homegrown core would provide more upside in 2026 than would any external additions, that belief alone is not a stable foundation on which to build a playoff team.

We’re talking about, essentially, a 3.4 fWAR difference between the returners and the offseason additions. Any combination of a reliable starting pitcher, a depth infielder and a competent adult reliever left on the free agent market could chip away significantly, if not entirely, at that gap.

The opportunity cost of not signing a starting pitcher when you’re an injury away from dipping into the Tyler Wells/Albert Suárez/Brandon Young/Cade Povich basket for a fifth starter is significant, and for that and many reasons, I expect the Orioles to get a deal for one over the line soon.

But perhaps the biggest reason is this: This team has the potential to be so much better than it was a year ago.

Undermining any version of improvement by being a pitcher short would feel like such a waste.